I am not an expert in engineering projects in China, which is why I rely on 3rd party reporting to give me an idea of what is going on in that space. And when China makes what seems to me to be a preposterous claim, qualified by “if everything goes according to schedule,” I am suspicious. Not because I particularly distrust Chinese engineers, but because the project managers in my own country are prone to the same tendency to overstate scope, and understate budget and schedule.

Why would you assume any of that? If there is one constant in large-scale engineering projects, it is project managers over-promising on what their teams can deliver. In this case, they are promising a miracle salvation from the global DRAM shortage, so a measure of scepticism is, I believe, warranted.

“assuming all current projects are completed on schedule”

From the article. This is the single largest fallacy one can engage in in engineering.

Speaking as a senior dev: AI has replaced new hires and interns, and the students know it. Why would management hire me juniors when Claude does what they can for cheaper? Will be interesting to see how this ouroboros functions in 10 years when it’s still recycling the state of the art as of 2022, and the senior devs start retiring with nothing but agentic backfills.