Screenshot of this question was making the rounds last week. But this article covers testing against all the well-known models out there.
Also includes outtakes on the ‘reasoning’ models.
Qwen3 feels left out. All 30B models I have failed the test.
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Gemini 3 (Fast) got it right for me; it said that unless I wanna carry my car there it’s better to drive, and it suggested that I could use the car to carry cleaning supplies, too.
Edit: A locally run instance of Gemma 2 9B fails spectacularly; it completely disregards the first sentece and recommends that I walk.
Well it is a 9B model after all. Self hosted models become a minimum “intelligent” at 16B parameters. For context the models ran in Google servers are close to 300B parameters models
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I think it’s worse when they get it right only some of the time. It’s not a matter of opinion, it should not change its “mind”.
The fucking things are useless for that reason, they’re all just guessing, literally.
they’re all just guessing, literally
They’re literally not.
Isn’t it a probabilistic extrapolation? Isn’t that what a guess is?
It’s a Large Language Model. It doesn’t “know” anything, doesn’t think, and has zero metacognition. It generates language based on patterns and probabilities. Its only goal is to produce linguistically coherent output - not factually correct one.
It gets things right sometimes purely because it was trained on a massive pile of correct information - not because it understands anything it’s saying.
So no, it doesn’t “guess.” It doesn’t even know it’s answering a question. It just talks.
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No, I completely agree. My personal view is that these systems are more intelligent than the haters give them credit for, but I think this simplistic “it’s just autocomplete” take is a solid heuristic for most people - keeps them from losing sight of what they’re actually dealing with.
I’d say LLMs are more intelligent than they have any right to be, but not nearly as intelligent as they can sometimes appear.
The comparison I keep coming back to: an LLM is like cruise control that’s turned out to be a surprisingly decent driver too. Steering and following traffic rules was never the goal of its developers, yet here we are. There’s nothing inherently wrong with letting it take the wheel for a bit, but it needs constant supervision - and people have to remember it’s still just cruise control, not autopilot.
The second we forget that is when we end up in the ditch. You can’t then climb out shaking your fist at the sky, yelling that the autopilot failed, when you never had autopilot to begin with.
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think the “fancy auto complete” meme is a disingenuous
“LLMs don’t have human understanding or metacognition”
Then what’s the (auto-completing) fucking problem? It’s just a series of steps on data. You could feed it white noise and it would vomit up more noise. And keep doing it as long as there’s power.
Intelligent?
I think the “fancy auto complete” meme is a disingenuous thought stopper, so I speak against it when I see it.
I can respect that. I’ve criticized it plenty myself too. I think this is just me knowing my audience and tweaking my language so at least the important part of my message gets through. Too much nuance around here usually means I spend the rest of my day responding to accusations about views I don’t even hold. Saying anything even mildly non-critical about AI is basically a third rail in these parts of the internet.
These systems do seem to have some kind of internal world model. I just have no clue how far that scales. Feels like it’s been plateauing pretty hard over the past year or so.
I’d be really curious to try the raw versions of these models before all the safety restrictions get slapped on top for public release. I don’t think anyone’s secretly sitting on actual AGI, but I also don’t buy that what we have access to is the absolute best versions in existence.
Hey LLM, if I have a 16 ounce cup with 10oz of water in it and I add 10 more ounces, how much water is in the cup?
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We poked fun at this meme, but it goes to show that the LLM is still like a child that needs to be taught to make implicit assumptions and posses contextual knowledge. The current model of LLM needs a lot more input and instructions to do what you want it to do specifically, like a child.
Edit: I know Lemmy scoff at LLM, but people probably also used to scoff at Veirbest’s steam machine that it will never amount to anything. Give it time and it will improve. I’m not endorsing AI by the way, I am on the fence about the long term consequence of it, but whether people like it or not, AI will impact human lives.
We have already thrown just about all the Internet and then some at them. It shows that LLMs can not think or reason. Which isn’t surprising, they weren’t meant to.
Or at least they can’t reason the way we do about our physical world.
No, they cannot reason, by any definition of the word. LLMs are statistics-based autocomplete tools. They don’t understand what they generate, they’re just really good at guessing how words should be strung together based on complicated statistics.
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I can be convinced by contrary evidence if provided. There is no evidence of reasoning in the example you linked. All that proved was that if you prime an LLM with sufficient context, it’s better at generating output, which is honestly just more support for calling them statistical auto-complete tools. Try asking it those same questions without feeding it your rules first, and I bet it doesn’t generate the right answers. Try asking it those questions 100 times after feeding it the rules, I bet it’ll generate the wrong answers a few times.
If LLMs are truly capable of reasoning, it shouldn’t need your 16 very specific rules on “arithmetic with extra steps” to get your very carefully worded questions correct. Your questions shouldn’t need to be carefully worded. They shouldn’t get tripped up by trivial “trick questions” like the original one in the post, or any of the dozens of other questions like it that LLMs have proven incapable of answering on their own. The fact that all of those things do happen supports my claim that they do not reason, or think, or understand - they simply generate output based on their input and internal statistical calculations.
LLMs are like the Wizard of Oz. From afar, they look like these powerful, all-knowing things. The speak confidently and convincingly, and are sometimes even correct! But once you get up close and peek behind the curtain, you realize that it’s just some complicated math, clever programming, and a bunch of pirated books back there.
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It needed the rules, and it needed carefully worded questions that matched the parameters set by the rules. I bet if the questions’ wording didn’t match your rules so exactly, it would generate worse answers. Heck, I bet if you gave it the rules, then asked several completely unrelated questions, then asked it your carefully worded rules-based questions, it would perform worse, because it’s context window would be muddied. Because that’s what it’s generating responses based on - the contents of it’s context window, coupled with stats-based word generation.
I still maintain that it shouldn’t need the rules if it’s truly reasoning though. LLMs train on a massive set of data, surely the information required to reason out the answers to your container questions is in there. Surely if it can reason, it should be able to generate answers to simple logical puzzles without someone putting most of the pieces together for them first.
